Hagai M. Segal examines today’s “polycrisis”—many interlocking global shocks occurring simultaneously. He argues that while the world appears unstable, major powers are avoiding direct war, favoring economic and technological rivalry instead. Segal highlights China’s preference for economic competition over military conflict, the weakness of democracies under stress, and the growing mismatch between fast-moving autocracies and slow democratic systems.

Takeaways:
• The post–World War II global order still holds, but under extreme strain.
• Power competition is now economic, technological, and systemic rather than territorial.
• Democracies face internal erosion and “democratic recession.”
• Climate stress, resource scarcity, and AI are reshaping geopolitics.
• Executives must treat geopolitical literacy and resilience as core to risk management.