Former Foreign Office minister Sir Alan Duncan and former UK ambassador to NATO Sir Adam Thompson, in conversation with moderator Muddassar Malik, examine how recent conflicts and shifting alliances are testing the post-1945 international system. They consider the health of multilateral institutions, Europe’s search for greater defence autonomy amid uncertain U.S. engagement, the risk of energy-price shocks and South-Asian tensions in the year ahead, and what sustained geopolitical volatility could mean for corporate planning and investment.

Key Takeaways:
- Institutions Under Siege — Eight-decade pillars like the UN and NATO are being tested by revisionist powers and Western fatigue.
- Europe Re-Arms Quietly — Trump-era uncertainty drives bigger defence budgets, strategic autonomy plans and talk of a Franco-British nuclear umbrella. 
- NATO’s Next Chapter — The alliance will survive, but Europeans must assume U.S. roles step-by-step or risk a capability gap. 
- Shock-Risk Economy — Oil, food or cyber shocks from the Russia-Ukraine front could jolt markets any quarter; scenario planning is imperative. 
- South-Asia Flashpoint — Water security and hard-line politics make an Indo-Pakistan war a live risk that could upend global supply chains. 
- Turbulence Is Normal — Hyper-connected conflicts and climate stresses mean volatility is here to stay; resilience beats forecasts.