At YPO EDGE Barcelona 2025, renowned historian Sir Niall Ferguson delivers a provocative and insightful analysis on the shifting geopolitical landscape, marked by emerging alliances such as the BRICS nations and a realigning United States under Donald Trump. Ferguson examines the historical cycles of empires, the economic realities behind global power shifts, and the strategic challenges facing the West in a rapidly changing world order.

Key Takeaways:
- Disorder, Not Order: Sir Niall Ferguson says there is no single world order; instead, there is disorder and competing visions of world order.
- Shifting Economic Power: The BRICS nations have seen a significant increase in their share of global GDP, though this has not necessarily translated into optimal investment returns.
- US-EU and BRICS Rifts: There are deep rifts between the U.S. and the EU, particularly over Ukraine, and potential rifts within the BRICS group, notably regarding trade.
- US Fiscal Challenges: The U.S. faces fiscal challenges with rising debt and interest payments, which could impact defense spending.
- China's Export Strategy: China's export strategy is evolving, with a growing focus on emerging markets, which may indirectly supply the U.S.